Well, all I can say here is that this months border crossing data is confusing, at least to me. As it has been for some time the Canadian dollar has continued to lose its value relative to the the U.S. dollar. In fact by quite a bit over the past year (see last item on the chart). That is considered a significant drop compared to a year ago.

Now we know that the oil boom continues in North Dakota, and that includes the relationship(s) between the North Dakota oil and the Canadian sands oil, so that is part of the increase in traffic.

So too is the improving economy between Canada and the U.S. so that accounts for some of the increase, especially in Fargo and Grand Forks.

However, the increase in the number of people crossing at the border stations, especially Pembina and the smaller crossing in North Dakota and Minnesota is hard to understand. Generally those are private citizens coming for the Canadian “holiday” weekends and for shopping excursions, especially to Grand Forks and Fargo, and to a smaller amount in Minot, Bismarck, and Williston.

Now, with nearly a 10 percent drop in the drop in value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. there was over a 13 percent increase in border traffic. That is a lot in any case, but it is confusing under these circumstances. We will just have to see if this is a one time aberration, or the leading edge of real improvement, which we hope for.

 

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